The new version of DNV’s ‘Maritime Forecast to 2050’ highlights the importance of energy efficiency and digital technologies in reducing fuel consumption and emissions, while also outlining various pathways and regulatory frameworks to achieve the IMO’s GHG emission reduction targets.
Reaching shipping’s 2030 decarbonisation goal of 20% emission reductions, set by IMO, will not happen without significant energy savings, according to DNV’s latest Maritime Forecast to 2050. The report stresses that, until carbon-neutral fuels become viable, prioritising the development and use of technologies that reduce energy consumption is crucial for lowering shipping’s emissions.
To reach IMO’s 2030 decarbonisation goals shipping will need between 7 and 48 Mtoe (million tonnes oil equivalent) of carbon-neutral fuels. However, with the global cross-sector production of carbon-neutral fuels expected to reach only between 44 and 63 Mtoe by 2030, it will be near impossible for shipping to secure its required share. As regulations like the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and FuelEU Maritime start to impose costs on emissions, shipowners and managers must therefore explore every option to reduce fuel consumption.
Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, DNV Maritime CEO, said: “While we are currently witnessing a slowdown of decarbonisation in shipping, we are entering an era of unprecedented technological exploration that will drive progress forward. With carbon-neutral fuels in short supply, smart decision-making and strategic investments today are crucial to lay the foundations for future emissions reductions. Prioritising energy efficiency, leveraging technological solutions, and embracing digitalisation are key steps towards reducing the extra cost burden and achieving our decarbonisation goals.”
The eighth edition of DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 provides an updated outlook on regulations, drivers, technologies and fuels needed for maritime decarbonisation, including four scenarios exploring conditions that could accelerate the adoption of specific fuels and technologies by 2050. The report emphasises that regardless of which direction the industry’s decarbonisation journey takes, it will come at a significant cost. The four simulated scenarios project these cost increases per transport work; with estimates ranging from 69-75% for bulk carriers, 70-86% for tankers, and 91-112% for container vessels.
Eirik Ovrum, Principal Consultant and Lead Author of the report said: “Our latest analyses show that decarbonising shipping could double the cost of transporting goods by containers. Ultimately, the rising costs of seaborne transport will need to be passed down the value chain and the market is already seeing trends towards shifting these costs to end-users. To remain competitive, shipowners must develop and execute strategic fleet management plans.”
According to the report, reducing energy losses is the most straightforward way for the global fleet to cut emissions. Operational and technical energy efficiency measures can reduce fuel consumption by between 4% and 16% by 2030. Reducing energy consumption by 16% for the world fleet would save 40 Mt of fuel and 120 Mt CO2 emissions, which would be equivalent to operating the 55,000 smallest ships or the 2,500 largest ships with carbon-neutral fuel.
Furthermore, the report highlights onboard carbon capture (OCC) as potentially the most effective way to decarbonise as it enables the continued use of conventional fuels and technologies. However, CO2 handling infrastructure needs significant development. Solutions like shore power and batteries which can reduce reliance on costly carbon-neutral fuels are also highlighted. For instance, shore power can cut the 7% of total energy consumption that ships use in ports by replacing onboard fossil fuel-generated electricity.
Finally, the report emphasises the increasingly important role digitalisation plays in complementing operational and technical energy efficiency measures. Digital verification tools are also crucial for establishing an infrastructure of trust, fostering industry-wide collaboration, and facilitating new contractual arrangements, incentivising energy savings.
Ovrum said: “Our new report outlines how digitalisation can shed light on vessel performance, providing vital data which shows the impact of energy saving measures. Data-driven decision making can then be used to design the next-generation of energy efficient ships which are key to the sector’s long-term success.”
The 2024 edition of Maritime Forecast to 2050 can be downloaded here.
Image: DNV’s latest ‘Maritime Forecast to 2050’ (source: DNV)
